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OCTOBER 21,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:44 P.M. ET: 

RYAN ADVANCES – From The New York Times:   A strong majority of anti-establishment conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus voted on Wednesday night to support Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin for House speaker, assuring that he will have the votes to secure the post next week and averting a leadership crisis for Republicans.  Mr. Ryan indicated that he was prepared to seize the gavel and try to bring unity to his party, which has been riven over how House leaders exert authority over members. That fight had become so bitter that it forced the resignation of Speaker John A. Boehner and derailed the candidacy of the majority leader, Representative Kevin McCarthy, to replace him.  “I’m grateful for the support of a supermajority of the House Freedom Caucus,” Mr. Ryan said in a statement, referring to the two-thirds vote he received.  Nobody gets everything in politics.  Uniting the party, even if it means some painful compromises, is absolutely essential as we enter a presidential election year.  We must win.  We must win.  We must win.

BIDEN'S SLYNESS – He announced he isn't running for president, but is that the whole story?  From Financial Times:  The sting for Mrs Clinton is that he did not endorse her candidacy. Moreover, he made thinly disguised swipes at her brand of “divisive” politics that spoke of Republicans as “enemies” — a line taken from one of Mrs Clinton’s debate answers. He also vowed to speak his mind “clearly and forcefully” in the coming months. In so doing, he put Mrs Clinton on notice that she would have to earn his support.  Yeah, people are noticing Joe's coolness toward Hillary.  Face it:  If the FBI probe into Clinton goes nuclear, and Clinton is brought down, Joe is waiting in the wings to take her place, without having alienated her base by campaigning against her.

ABC GOES SOFT ON BEN – From Newsbusters:   What’s going on here? Good Morning America, somehow, aired a shockingly positive portrayal of Ben Carson on Wednesday, promoting the Republican as “amazing” and having a “resume like no other candidate.” This is quite a change from ABC’s previous attacks on Carson.  Lara Spencer introduced a “closer look" at the man who “went from being called a dummy in grade school to becoming one of the world's most respected neurosurgeons.” Reporter David Wright enthused, “He has a resume like no other candidate and that's just the start of it. Dr. Carson is full of surprises.”  Maybe they just see him as the alternative to Donald Trump.  Or maybe ABC just got some rare common sense,

JEB IN TROUBLE – From Bloomberg:   A month of extensive New Hampshire advertising on Jeb Bush's behalf has failed to boost his support and likely Republican primary voters there view him as inferior to frontrunner Donald Trump on most key attributes.  A new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll also shows Bush's favorability rating among the state's Republican primary voters has dropped to its lowest level—57 percent—since the survey was first taken almost a year ago.  In the horse race, the former Florida governor has seen his overall support drop to 10 percent, from 11 percent in May. That puts him in third place, behind Trump at 24 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 17 percent, despite an advertising push by the pro-Bush Right to Rise super political action committee that has dominated the state's television screens for the past four weeks.  He was a fine governor of Florida, but the Bush name is hurting him in a Republican electorate looking for anti-establishment faces.  It's too bad, because a lot of good candidates are being bypassed.

October 21, 2015       Permalink

BULLETIN:  BIDEN DECIDES – AT 12:30 P.M. ET:  Joe Biden has just announced, in the White House rose garden, that he will not (repeat not) be a candidate for president.

This gives Hillary Clinton a relatively clear path to the Democratic nomination, barring serious charges as a result of the FBI investigation into her conduct as secretary of state.  If those charges should come down in coming months, the Democrats will be in chaos.

Biden's statement that he will not run was rambling, and seemed poorly prepared.  He did say he thought the Democratic Party should run on Obama's record, which is bad advice, and he did say we can't solve all the world's problems, which, while true, sends a signal of weakness and indecsion.

Biden has always been a generally decent but shallow man.  He's been wrong, and, I think, proved wrong, on the great foreign-policy issues of our time.

Biden's "no" means increased attention to tomorrow's testimony by Hillary Clinton before the Benghazi committee.  It may also mean increased attention to Bernie Sanders, the only candidate who has gained any traction against Hillary in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

However...Biden did outline some things he would do if he were president.  In a way, he left the door open to being nominated should Hillary stumble.  In effect, a draft, not requiring a campaign.

It's Hillary's nomination to lose.  The question is whether she will lose it.   Hey, you never know. 

October 21, 2015       Permalink

TRUMP TRUMPS – AT 10:33 A.M.  ET:  A new ABC poll shows Donald Trump still leading, and showing great strength.  From ABC News: 

Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, not only in vote preferences but in expectations as well -– a remarkable feat for the non-politician who’s surprised the GOP establishment with his staying power as well as his support.

Trump has leveled off with backing from 32 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, easily enough to retain his frontrunner status. Fellow outsider Ben Carson follows with 22 percent, also flat this month after sharp summertime gains.

Notably, even more leaned Republicans -- 42 percent -- say they expect Trump to win the GOP nomination for president. And given a list of six potential nominees, 43 percent pick Trump as having the best chance to win the general election just more than a year from now.

Trump also fares well on many key attributes. Nearly half of leaned Republicans -- 47 percent -- view him as the strongest leader; 39 percent think he'd be best able to handle immigration; 32 percent feel he is closest to them on the issues; and 29 percent say he “best understands the problems of people like you.” In each case he leads the other top-five contenders for the nomination, Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina.

Trump has weaknesses nonetheless. More view Carson as the most honest and trustworthy (33 percent vs. 21 percent for Trump), and Trump trails Bush in having the best experience (31 vs. 23 percent). While 19 percent say Trump has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president, that compares with a similar 24 percent for Carson.

COMMENT:  It's far from over.  I'm guessing that Trump, despite his apparent staying power, will stay at the level he's at.  Please note that three quarters of Republicans do not support him.  As other Republican candidates drop out of the race, I'm hoping their backing goes to the GOP's best hope in the general election.  In my view that is Marco Rubio. 

I really don't think Trump can win a general election.  All those absurd and offensive statements he's made are on tape, and will be used against him.  He's far from an adequate debater.  He rarely knows his facts.  And the press will overwhelmingly try to help Hillary. 

The real political season only began last month.  Time may shake up this whole race.  

October 21, 2015       Permalink

ELECTIONS MATTER – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  The British Labour party recently elected the most extreme left-wing leader in its history.   The election created an uproar in the saner ranks of British politics.  But the left will not be denied, and it always acts like the left.  From the Times of Israel:

UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has appointed controversial figure Suemas Milne as his director of strategy & communications, the Telegraph reported.

Milne has in the past praised the “resistance” against British troops in Iraq and has justified terror attacks against Israel.

Milne, a regular contributor to the Guardian newspaper, wrote in a 2004 article that Iraqi terrorists were the country’s true liberators and called their attacks a “resistance war.”

During an anti-Israel rally in 2014, he said Israel had no right to defend itself from Gaza terrorism, claiming the state continued to occupy the Palestinian territory.

“It isn’t terrorism to fight back,” he said of attacks from Hamas against Israel. “The terrorism is the killing of citizens by Israel on an industrial scale.”

Following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York, he wrote that the US had brought the tragedy upon itself through its actions in the Middle East.

Corbyn himself has also been criticized for claiming that it was a “tragedy” that bin Laden had been killed before he could stand trial for the 2001 attacks.

COMMENT:  Nice, huh?  I wonder if the fashion plates among British and American "intellectuals" will have much to say about this. 

It's highly unlikely that Corbyn could become prime minister, but it's not impossible.  The very fact that Britain's second largest party is headed by an idiot fanatic is a nightmare itself.

October 21, 2015       Permalink

HILLARY'S LATEST LIE – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  I guess she just can't control herself.  In an age when college students are taught that a lie is simply an "alternative narrative," Hillary makes full use of our slipping moral standards.  From the Washington Examiner:

Hillary Clinton's closest advisors and top fundraisers include drug and insurance lobbyists. Clinton fought hard to force everyone to buy health insurance, and to force employers to cover all contraceptive costs through insurance. Her donor rolls include Big Pharma PACs, and drugmakers have paid her six-figure speaking fees.

Yet Clinton claims the insurers and the drugmakers are her enemies. It's no wonder so many voters don't trust her.

Anderson Cooper, the CNN moderator, asked candidates in the first Democratic debate, "Which enemy are you most proud of?"

After her rival Martin O'Malley said, "The National Rifle Association," to applause, Clinton answered, "Well, in addition to the NRA, the health insurance companies, the drug companies, the Iranians. Probably the Republicans."

No one is surprised that Clinton considers 40 percent of the country her "enemy" because they vote against her. But her claim of mutual enmity with the industries that have long supported her strains credulity for anyone who has followed her career.

When she ran for president in 2008, Clinton raised $696,420 from "health services/HMOs," according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That was the most any politician in history had ever raised from that industry. (Obama, as the nominee, would ultimately break Clinton's record later that same election). Her 2006 Senate re-election had brought in $183,770 from the HMO industry, which at that time was also a new record haul from that industry.

In 2008, Clinton raised $345,234 from the "pharmaceutical manufacturing" industry, according to CRP, far more than any Republican candidate raised in that election.

COMMENT:  I guess it's true – Hillary is the second coming of Richard Nixon, complete with an enemies list.  At least the people on Nixon's list had never actually helped him or written checks to him.

Joe Biden, in an obvious jab at Hillary, commented yesterday that you can't get anything solved if you start designating opponents as "enemies."  If he runs, he will obviously portray Clinton as a divisive, shrill individual.  He'll be right.

October 21,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 20,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET.

POLICE WORK – From the New York Post:  A cop was shot in the head and killed while chasing a gunman after a shootout in East Harlem Tuesday night, police sources said.  The housing cop, with five years on the force, responded to a call for gunfire between two rival groups at 420 East 102nd street at around 9 p.m., according to law enforcement sources.  Once the officers arrived on scene, the warring groups split up and scattered, with one suspect robbing a bike by gunpoint.  The bike-riding gunman led cops on a chase to a footbridge at 120th Street near the FDR.  Once the suspect made it over to the waterside there was an exchange of gunfire and the cop was struck in the forehead, sources said.  We will now be told that the killer was culturally upset by being chased by police.  Police lives matter.

NUTBAG – From the Washington Free Beacon:   Former President Jimmy Carter said recently that he provided maps of Islamic State positions in Syria to the Russian embassy in Washington, a move apparently at odds with the Obama administration’s official policy of not cooperating with Russia in the Syrian war.  Carter said on Sunday in Georgia that he knows Russian President Vladimir Putin “fairly well” because they “have a common interest in fly fishing.” When he met with Putin in April along with other global leaders to discuss the crises in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian president gave him an email address so the two could discuss his “fly fishing experiences, particularly in Russia,” Carter said.   It is hard to believe that this man was an American president.  Of course, it's hard to believe that the current occupant of the White House is an American president.

A NEW KIND OF DEMOCRACY – From Fox:  There’s a big election controversy at a California middle school after the principal discovered that not enough black or Latino students were elected to office.  Principal Lena Van Haren’s decision to withhold the results of the student government elections angered parents and students at Everett Middle School in San Francisco.  “It’s not okay for a school that is really, really diverse to have the student representatives majority white,” she told the San Francisco Chronicle. “The easy thing would have been to announce the results and move on. I intentionally did not choose the easy way because this is so important.”  What a heroine.  There were no complaints – none whatever – that the election was dishonest.  The kids elected whom they wanted to elect.  But democracy to "progressives" means that the "right" people must be elected.  We are in trouble.

RYAN IN, WITH CONDITIONS – From the Washington Times:   Rep. Paul Ryan said Tuesday he’s ready to replace Speaker John A. Boehner if House Republicans of all stripes unite behind his vision, capping an intense wait to hear from the man who many tapped as the sole hope to save a bitterly divided caucus.  Mr. Ryan, Wisconsin Republican and 2012 vice presidential candidate, gave members until Friday to mull whether they’re in his corner or not, an ultimatum designed to get complete buy-in from every wing of the party and avoid the type of disarray that doomed Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s short-lived bid for the post.  “If I can truly be a unifying figure, than I will gladly serve,” Mr. Ryan said after a closed-door meeting with fellow House Republicans.  If Ryan can unify the party, he not only will become speaker, he'll become a future presidential candidate.

October 20, 2015       Permalink

WHY JIM WEBB IS IMPORTANT – AT 10:47 A.M. ET:  This expands on our report that Jim Webb, who participated in last week's Democratic debate, may run for president as an independent.  From Fox:

Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb will announce Tuesday that he is dropping out of the Democratic presidential race, Fox News has learned.

Webb is said to be disillusioned with the Democratic Party -- as well as the Republican Party -- and how the political parties are being pulled to allegedly extreme positions by the huge amounts of loosely regulated money fueling the campaigns.

Webb has a press conference scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.

While Webb is thought to be weighing a possible independent bid, he is not expected to launch an independent campaign for president Tuesday. Rather, he's expected to take some time after his announcement to talk with people from across the political spectrum before making a decision.

COMMENT:  This is important because Jim Webb, while not very well known, has a stellar military record and a history in both political parties.  He was, before becoming a nominal Democrat, Ronald Reagan's secretary of the Navy. 

A Webb campaign, drawing on the best of both parties, could conceivably get as much as five percent of the vote, maybe even more.  That can swing a presidential election by drawing more votes from one party than the other.  Recall that Ralph Nader's independent candidacy in 2000 probably cost Al Gore the election.  Recall that Ross Perot's independent candidacy in 1992 surely cost George H.W. Bush the election. 

So Webb is important.  As a former U.S. senator (from Virginia) he's experienced in the national landscape and knows how to campaign.

October 20,  2015     Permalink

RUSSIA IN THE MIDEAST – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  You kind of wonder whether Field Marshal Obama is simply naive about the new Russian expansion into the Mideast, or understands it fully and has no problem with it.  After all, Obama was brought up influenced by Marxists and Muslims, even attending a Muslim school in Indonesia.  My feeling is that it's the latter.  Note please which international forces have grown in power since Obama took office – Communism and militant Islam.  Coincidence?  Only in the mainstream media.  From Bloomberg: 

As Russia’s air war in Syria nears its fourth week, officials now admit that Moscow’s aim is far broader than the publicly announced fight against terrorist groups.

The Kremlin’s real goal is to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake as much as possible of the territory his forces have lost to opponents, including U.S.-backed rebels, Russian officials told Bloomberg News. Moscow’s deployment of several dozen planes, as well as ships in the Black and Caspian Seas, could last a year or more, one official said.

President Vladimir Putin is willing to run the risk of falling into the kind of quagmire that helped sink the Soviet Union a generation ago for the chance to roll back U.S. influence and demonstrate he can dictate terms to Washington. If the strategy is successful, Russia’s largest military drive in decades outside the former Soviet Union would force the U.S. and its allies to choose between Assad, whom they oppose for his human-rights abuses, and the brutal extremists of Islamic State.
“They’re going to have to recognize that Islamic State is the real threat that has been countered only by the Syrian regular army commanded by President Bashar al-Assad,” said Iliyas Umakhanov, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house Federation Council, who oversees international relations at the assembly.

A top Russian military official said on Friday that the Kremlin sees no moderate opposition in Syria, leaving only terrorists and the pro-Assad forces Moscow is backing.

“In the West, they talk about ‘moderate opposition,’ but we so far haven’t seen any in Syria,” General Andrey Kartapolov, commander of the Russian operation in Syria, told the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper. “Any person who takes up arms and fights the legal authorities, how moderate can he be?”

COMMENT:  Obama may well leave office having handed the role of major power in the Mideast to the Russians.  And he's thinking about a legacy?  He ought to think about that.  But, of course, his thoughts would be very different from ours.

October 20, 2015       Permalink 

GOP RACE, LATEST – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  It is a strange political year.  Republicans with heavy records of political accomplishment are being swept aside in favor of political amateurs.  It is interesting, but dangerous.  Amateurs, like Ross Perot in 1992, look good at the moment, but they often self-destruct down the line because of their lack of experience.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) Donald Trump and Ben Carson now stand alone at the top of the Republican field, as Carly Fiorina's brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president appears to have ended, a new CNN/ORC poll finds.

Overall, Trump's 27% leads the field, followed by Carson at 22%, both head and shoulders above their nearest competition. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are tied for third place with 8% support each, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul each at 5%. Fiorina, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each have 4% support, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 3%. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum stands at 2% and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham holds 1%.

The new poll comes amid a flurry of polling being released about a week before the GOP candidates will again meet on the debate stage. The polling criteria set by the organizers of that debate, set to take place October 28, appear likely to result in 10 candidates taking the main stage. Aside from Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ended his campaign shortly after last month's debate, it's likely to be a rematch of those who debated in Simi Valley.

Fiorina's decline comes across the demographic and political spectrum, with her support now topping out at 8% among those with college degrees. Last month, she stood at 22% among the same group. Fiorina has dropped 11 points among women and 12 points among men, fallen 18 points among independents, 17 points among those age 50 or older, and 15 points among conservatives.

COMMENT:  I hate to see results like that.  Jeb Bush was an outstanding governor of Florida.  He deserves better despite an unimaginative campaign.  Marco Rubio is a gifted political leader, and probably the only candidate who can best Hillary Clinton in a debate.  He's superb.  He deserves better.

Rick Perry and Scott Walker also deserved better.  Outstanding records both.

The drop in Carly's standing is baffling.  She's a dazzler, although some people tell me she comes off as cold, a kind of mechanical candidate.  I don't think she is, but she clearly has to do well in next week's GOP debate and connect better on the campaign trail. 

I sense a growing unease within the Republican Party that the frontrunners are unelectable in a general election.  I share that concern.  But I also recall that the same was said of Ronald Reagan when he ran for the GOP nomination in 1980.  Of course, Reagan had been a two-term governor of our largest state.  He knew how to handle a major campaign.

October 20,  2015     Permalink